The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains one of the main sources of instability in the South Caucasus. Signing a formal peace agreement would mark a significant step toward lasting regional security and economic cooperation.

The market will resolve to YES if, by 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2025, the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan publicly announce that they have agreed to a single formal peace agreement and confirm its conclusion in official statements.

Data source: official information from the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan or reports of reputable news agencies such as Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, etc.