Iran, currently under attack by Israel, possesses a large stockpile of radioactive materials with varying degrees of enrichment. This poses a serious threat.

The Islamic Republic is now unlikely to develop a true nuclear bomb, but in a desperate move, it may use its existing uranium to cause radioactive contamination on Israeli territory.

The market will resolve to YES if, by 23:59 UTC on August 31, 2025, credible information is received confirming that Iran has delivered and used a weapon on Israeli territory containing a substantial quantity of radioactive chemical elements intended to contaminate air, soil, and structures. “Delivery” includes the use of missiles, drones, bombs, sabotage teams, or any other method of transport from Iran.

Data sources: official statements by the Government of Israel. Additional consideration will be given to reports by major news agencies, international media, and IAEA announcements.