All listed leaders - presidents, prime ministers, and the Pope - can lose their position in 2025 only through voluntary resignation, impeachment, overthrow, a vote of no confidence, or natural causes (such as death, severe injury, or serious illness), as no scheduled elections for top leadership roles are expected in their respective countries during the year.

“Loss of position” is defined as any change in a leader’s status, including a shift to acting capacity following the resignation of a government. Temporary, prearranged transfers of authority - such as those occurring during vacations, medical procedures, or similar circumstances - do not constitute a “loss of position.”

The market will resolve positively for only one leader: the first to leave office in 2025. All others will be recorded as NO. If none of the listed leaders leave office by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, the market will resolve as NO for all outcomes.

Data source: official announcements from the governments of the respective countries. Additional sources: reports from major news agencies and global media outlets.