François Bayrou’s government has record-low approval ratings among French voters. His possible resignation is regularly discussed in Parliament and the press.

The market will resolve to YES if, at any time during the period from 00:01 UTC on August 11, 2025 to 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, François Bayrou is not holding the office of Prime Minister of France, or if an official announcement of his resignation or dismissal is made before that deadline, regardless of the effective date.

Data source: official information from the Government of France (Prime Minister’s Office) or the Élysée Palace, or reports of reputable news agencies such as Reuters, AP, or Bloomberg.