In recent years, India has become one of the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. As of August 25, 2025, discussions have intensified about diversifying supplies amid international pressure, raising the possibility of an official decision to curb such purchases.

The market will resolve to YES if the Government of India officially announces a reduction in imports of Russian crude oil in any form (policy decision, directive, or public statement of intent to decrease volumes) between 00:01 ET on August 25, 2025 and 23:59 ET on September 30, 2025. The announcement alone is sufficient regardless of the effective date or actual implementation. Statements by state-owned oil companies, as well as reports citing “sources” without official confirmation, will not count.

Data source: official information from the Government of India, including the Press Information Bureau, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, the Ministry of External Affairs, and the Prime Minister’s Office; or reports of reputable news agencies such as Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, etc.