Israel and its primary ally, the United States, aim to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran, in turn, seeks to exit the current conflict while preserving what remains of its industrial and energy infrastructure. A potential means of addressing both objectives could be a bilateral agreement between Iran and the United States on the restricted use of nuclear energy.

The market will resolve to YES if, by 11:59 p.m. UTC on December 31, 2025, the sitting governments of both the United States and Iran announce the conclusion of an agreement addressing any aspect of nuclear energy development, nuclear research, or nuclear weapons in Iran. The agreement’s effective date is irrelevant. It may include other parties and cover broader issues, but both the U.S. and Iran must be signatories for the market to resolve positively. For the purposes of this market, “conclusion” means the agreement has been signed by officials from the executive branches of both countries.

Data source: official announcements by the U.S. and Iranian governments as reported by international news agencies and media outlets.