According to Israeli and U.S. intelligence reports, Iran is capable of developing nuclear weapons within a short timeframe - estimates range from a few days to several months. Israeli airstrikes have weakened Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but it is possible they were not completely destroyed.

The market will resolve to YES if, by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, credible evidence is published confirming that Iran possesses nuclear weapons.

Data sources: official statements from the governments of Iran, Israel, and the United States, as well as reports from the IAEA. Verified evidence of Iran’s use of nuclear weapons, including in test scenarios, will also be considered.