Israel is conducting a military operation in the Gaza Strip and currently maintains troops there. At the same time, the country’s leadership states it does not intend to permanently occupy Gaza.

The market will resolve to YES if, at any time from 00:01 ET on August 21, 2025 through 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025, Israel officially announces that it has ceased all ground operations in the Gaza Strip and has withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza. An announcement that forces have been withdrawn to designated buffer zones will also qualify, even if such zones are located on internationally recognized Palestinian territory.

Data source: official information from the Government of Israel, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Ministry of Defense, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on their websites and verified accounts; or reports of reputable news agencies such as Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, etc.