Will Merz be out as Chancellor of Germany by the end of the year?

Tensions within Germany’s “black–red coalition” are increasing. A government breakup and the Chancellor’s resignation are considered possible.

The market will resolve to YES if, at any point from 00:01 ET on September 04, 2025 through 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025, Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Federal Chancellor of Germany for any reason. An official announcement of resignation or removal made within this window is sufficient to trigger YES, even if the change takes effect later.

Data source: official information from the Government of Germany (Bundesregierung) and the Federal Chancellery (Bundeskanzleramt), or reports of reputable news agencies such as Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, etc.