The European Union and the United States remain major trading partners, yet tariff disputes occasionally arise between them. In 2025, Brussels may consider introducing new or higher duties on U.S.-origin goods, which would affect import costs and the structure of bilateral trade.

The market will resolve to YES if, between 12:01 a.m. ET on July 23, 2025 and 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2025, the European Union officially adopts a regulatory act that introduces a new or increased tariff that applies exclusively to goods originating from the United States of America.

Tariffs of a global nature (covering all imported goods) and tariffs imposed by individual EU member states are excluded. The effective date of the tariff is irrelevant; only the fact of official adoption within the stated period is required.

Data source: Official press releases of the European Commission, or, if unavailable, reports from reputable news agencies such as Reuters, Bloomberg, or the Financial Times.