On August 06, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing secondary tariffs on India for continuing purchases of Russian oil. Against this backdrop, additional U.S. measures directly addressing Russia and/or members of its government are being discussed.

The market will resolve to YES if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any kind against the Russian state and/or members of its government between 12:01 a.m. ET on August 25, 2025 and 11:59 p.m. ET on September 30, 2025. Sanctions include tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, and targeted designations. Measures that solely target Russian citizens or private legal entities without directly addressing the Russian state or members of its government will not count. Secondary tariffs imposed on third countries or persons for continuing trade with Russia will count. Signing and/or publication of an official act (including an executive order) within the stated period is sufficient, regardless of its effective date; actions by U.S. state authorities are excluded.

Data source: official publications of the U.S. government—the White House, the U.S. Department of the Treasury (Office of Foreign Assets Control, OFAC), and the Federal Register; if needed, official information from these sources or reports of reputable news agencies such as Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, etc.