The U.S. government may, as part of various deals with Russia, formally recognize Russian sovereignty over most of the Crimean Peninsula. Such a decision would mark a change in the public U.S. position on Crimea’s status and would have significant international political and legal consequences.

The market will resolve to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025, the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over more than 50% of the territory of the Crimean Peninsula (defined as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol).

“Formal recognition” means an official act of the United States - such as a presidential executive order, an enacted law, or an official written statement by the White House or the U.S. Department of State - unambiguously stating such recognition. Statements of intent, draft acts, preliminary announcements, or any other communications without the recognition actually taking effect do not count as “formal recognition.”

Data source: official information from the U.S. government (websites of the White House, U.S. Department of State, Federal Register, and U.S. Congress); if needed, reports of reputable news agencies such as Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, etc.