When the government’s money runs out and Congress hasn’t approved new funding, parts of the government have to shut down.

The market will resolve to YES if the Office of Management and Budget officially announces the start of a federal government shutdown by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2025.

Data sources: official notices from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB, omb.gov) and the Office of Personnel Management (OPM, opm.gov), along with reports from reputable news agencies such as the Associated Press, Reuters, and Bloomberg.