The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been ongoing since February 2022, involving active hostilities and significant human and material losses. The possibility of an official ceasefire is of considerable interest to the international community and could affect the political and humanitarian situation in the region.

The market will resolve to YES if, before 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2025, there is an official announcement of a mutually agreed cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. The agreement must concern a general suspension of the conflict, not limited aspects such as energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other local arrangements. Humanitarian pauses and informal agreements will not be considered. An official statement from both parties that such an agreement has been reached will be sufficient for resolution, even if the actual ceasefire date occurs later.

Data source: official statements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, or reports of reputable international news agencies such as Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, etc.