Since 2023, the U.S. Congress has been debating a ban on TikTok as an application controlled by a “foreign adversary.” On April 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order extending the implementation delay of the ban until September 17, 2025. The future of this restriction remains under public scrutiny.

The market will resolve to YES if, at any time between 00:01 ET on July 29, 2025 and 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025, a U.S. government ban comes into legal force that effectively denies the majority of U.S. residents access to the TikTok app. The market will also resolve to YES if, after September 17, 2025, the postponement established by the Executive Order of April 4, 2025 expires or is revoked without TikTok having been brought into full compliance with U.S. law, irrespective of actual enforcement actions.

The market will resolve to NO if, before the deadline, TikTok is sold to a new owner and fully complies with U.S. legal requirements, or if no such ban enters into force.

Data source: official information from the U.S. government (executive orders, publications of the Department of Justice, federal court documents) or reports of reputable news agencies such as Reuters, AP, Bloomberg.