Discussions are underway about imposing tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products into the United States as part of President Donald Trump’s trade and industrial policy and efforts to strengthen drug supply chain resilience. This market asks whether such tariffs will be officially introduced by September 30, 2025.

The market will resolve to YES if, between 00:01 ET on August 28, 2025 and 23:59 ET on September 30, 2025, Donald Trump signs a federal law or an executive action (e.g., order, proclamation, or directive) that imposes a tariff on imports of pharmaceutical products into the United States. Only tariffs specifically targeting pharmaceutical products count; a general tariff on all imported goods or a tariff on all imports from a particular country does not count. A tariff targeting pharmaceutical products from one or more specific countries does count. Any qualifying tariff officially introduced during the specified period counts regardless of its effective date.

Data source: official publications of the White House and the U.S. Federal Register, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) regarding updates to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS), and notices from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP); if needed, reports from reputable news agencies such as Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, etc.