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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

This market will resolve to &quot;Yes&quot; if Iran&#39;s Supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between June 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to &quot;No&quot;. Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market&#39;s timeframe. The primary resolution source will be official government statements, but a consensus of credible media reporting will also be considered.  

What price will Solana hit in July?

The market will resolve as YES for the 160 option if at any moment between 00:00 ET on 01.07.2025 and 23:59 ET on 31.07.2025 any 1-minute candle for the SOL/USDT pair records a final “High” price of 160 or higher. The market will resolve as YES for the 140 option if at any moment between 00:00 ET on 01.07.2025 and 23:59 ET on 31.07.2025 any 1-minute candle for the SOL/USDT pair records a final “Low” price of 140 or lower. The market will resolve as YES for the 130 option if at any moment between 00:00 ET on 01.07.2025 and 23:59 ET on 31.07.2025 any 1-minute candle for the SOL/USDT pair records a final “Low” price of 130 or lower. Data source: only the SOL/USDT chart on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange website with the “1m” interval selected https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT.

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

U.S. President Donald Trump has been officially nominated for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize by several legitimate nominators. Unlike other Nobel Prizes, the Peace Prize is awarded by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The announcement of the new laureate is expected to take place on October 10, 2025. This market will resolve to YES if the Norwegian Nobel Committee announces Donald Trump as the recipient of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2025. Data source: Nobel Peace Prize official website — https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/. Reports from international news agencies may also be taken into account.

115000

What price will Bitcoin hit in July?

100000

The market will resolve as YES for the 115000 option if at any moment between 00:00 ET on 01.07.2025 and 23:59 ET on 31.07.2025 any 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final “High” price of 115000 or higher. The market will resolve as YES for the 100000 option if at any moment between 00:00 ET on 01.07.2025 and 23:59 ET on 31.07.2025 any 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final “Low” price of 100000 or lower. Data source: only the BTC/USDT chart on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange website with the “1m” interval selected https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT.

Will the total cryptocurrency market capitalization exceed $4 trillion before the end of August?

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is the aggregate market value of all circulating digital assets. Major aggregators (CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, etc.) calculate this metric and publish it in real time. The market will resolve to YES if, at any time from 00:01 UTC on 28 June 2025 through 23:59 UTC on 31 August 2025, the Crypto Market Cap figure on CoinMarketCap.com equals or exceeds $4 trillion.  Data source: the official CoinMarketCap section → Charts → Total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization (https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/).

Apple

Largest Company end of 2025?

Microsoft

NVIDIA

Alphabet

Amazon

The market will resolve in favor of the company whose market capitalization is the highest among the listed outcomes as of December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC. Definition of Market Capitalization:Market capitalization is defined as the officially reported value calculated by multiplying the total number of outstanding common shares by the share price at market close on the final trading day of 2025. Source of Resolution:The primary source is the aggregated market capitalization data available at https://companiesmarketcap.com/ as of December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC. If the site is unavailable or presents significant discrepancies, data from leading financial information providers may be used, including but not limited to: Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and official company filings. Additional Provisions:– Only companies listed in the outcomes are considered. If a company not included in the list has a higher market cap, it will not affect market resolution.– If one or more listed companies cease public trading of their shares on or before December 31, 2025, they will be automatically excluded from consideration.

Less than 18%

What will be the Bank of Russia’s key interest rate after the July meeting?

18-18,9%

19-19,9%

20% and more

In June, the Bank of Russia cut its key interest rate by 1 percentage point from the previous level, bringing it to 20%. Further reductions are possible if inflation remains subdued. The market will resolve in favor of the option whose value matches the Bank of Russia’s officially published key interest rate at 23:59 UTC on July 25, 2025. Data source: official figures published on the Bank of Russia website cbr.ru.

Will the U.S. Congress impeach President Trump before the end of 2025?

The market will resolve as &quot;Yes&quot; if both chambers of the U.S. Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate) vote to impeach (remove from office) President Donald Trump by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025. Confirmation criteria:• an official statement from the U.S. Congress,• reports from leading international news agencies (such as Reuters, AP, AFP, Bloomberg, BBC, CNN).

Will there be a recession in the U.S. in 2025?

Amid global instability and rising trade barriers, economic risks in the U.S. have significantly increased. In April 2025, Goldman Sachs raised its estimate of a U.S. recession occurring within the year to 45%, citing heightened political uncertainty, declining capital expenditures, tighter financial conditions, and new tariffs. Participants are invited to predict whether a recession will be officially recognized in the U.S. in 2025.Market Resolution Criteria:The market will resolve as “Yes” if, on or before December 31, 2025, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares that a recession began in 2025 — even if the announcement or wording is issued retroactively or clarified later.In all other cases, the market will resolve as “No.” For the purposes of this market, a recession is defined by the NBER as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, and typically reflected in real GDP, employment, industrial production, and other key indicators. The sole resolution source is an official statement from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), published on its website: https://www.nber.org/.Supporting sources such as The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, CNBC, and Reuters may be used only if they include a direct reference to NBER’s position.

$50,000 or lower

What price will Bitcoin (BTC) break in 2025?

$130,000 or higher

$150,000 or higher

$200,000 or higher

In 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) once again became the center of attention for investors, analysts, and the crypto community. After breaking the $100,000 level at the end of 2024 and experiencing a record inflow of institutional funds through ETFs, opinions are divided: some predict a price surge to $200,000 and beyond, while others anticipate a correction below $70,000 due to potential macroeconomic shocks.

The market will be resolved based on the "Closing" price of the 1-minute BTCUSDT candle on Binance, recorded between March 26 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC.

The market will resolve as "Below $50,000" if the lowest candle price within the specified period reaches $50,000 or lower. Otherwise, it will resolve as "No".
The market will resolve as "Above $130,000" if the highest candle price within the specified period reaches $130,000 or higher. Otherwise, it will resolve as "No".
The market will resolve as "Above $150,000" if the highest candle price within the specified period reaches $150,000 or higher. Otherwise, it will resolve as "No".
The market will resolve as "Above $200,000" if the highest candle price within the specified period reaches $200,000 or higher. Otherwise, it will resolve as "No".


The final price will be determined based on Binance exchange data, available on the page:
🔗 https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTCUSDT
with the "1m" timeframe and "Candlesticks" selected in the top panel.

More 5%

How will Kazakhstan's GDP change in 2025?

Less than or equal to 5%

For 2024, Kazakhstan's GDP growth (IFO growth) was 4.1% (according to the National Statistics Bureau).

The market will resolve based on the data as of December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC:

If the IFO GDP growth exceeds 5%, the outcome will be “More 5%”. 
If the IFO GDP growth is less than or equal to 5%, the outcome will be “Less than or equal to 5%”. 
The source for this market resolution will be the “IFO GDP Growth” chart on the National Statistics Bureau of Kazakhstan's website, section “GDP”: https://stat.gov.kz/ru/

There would be an Аltseason

Will There Be an Altseason in 2025?

This market will resolve as "Yes" if a 1-minute Binance candle for SOLUSDT reaches a closing price of $350.01 or higher by December 31, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, or at any time before this from the start of trading. Alternatively, if a 1-minute Binance candle for ETHUSDT reaches a closing price of $4500.01 or higher by December 31, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, or at any time before this from the start of trading, the market will also resolve as "Yes." Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the closing prices of SOLUSDT, which are currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOLUSDT, or the closing prices of ETHUSDT, available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETHUSDT, with the "1m" time frame and "Candlesticks" selected on the top panel.

Which country’s head of government will Vladimir Putin meet with first?

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Spain

Israel

Canada

The market will resolve in favor of the country whose head of executive power is the first to hold a personal meeting with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025. By &quot;head of executive power&quot; is meant: for the United States and France — the President; for the other listed countries — the head of government. Confirmation criteria:– The participation of both parties must be confirmed by at least one of the following sources:• official press releases, statements, or publications of the respective state and Russia;• public statements by official representatives of the parties;• reports from leading international news agencies (for example, Reuters, AP, AFP, Bloomberg, BBC, CNN). – The meeting is considered to have taken place only if both individuals meet in person physically. Online formats (video calls, telephone conversations) or the exchange of written statements do not count. Additional provisions:– It does not matter where exactly or in what format the meeting takes place (official visit, forum, conference, behind-the-scenes negotiations, etc.), provided that both individuals participate in person and their interaction is publicly confirmed.– If a meeting was planned but did not take place for any reason, the market will be resolved as &quot;No.&quot;– In the case of a group meeting with simultaneous participation, the countries whose leaders took part in it will be counted.– If no meeting with any of the leaders of the listed countries takes place before the end of 2025, the market will be resolved as &quot;No&quot; for all countries.

Will Elon Musk create his own Telegram channel by the end of 2025?

Event Conditions and Rules:The market will resolve as “Yes” if, on or before December 31, 2025 (23:59 UTC), a public Telegram channel is created and confirmed as directly associated with Elon Musk, meeting all of the following criteria. Confirmation Criteria:– The channel must be public and accessible via a username link (e.g., t.me/elonmusk) or searchable within Telegram.– The connection to Elon Musk must be clearly verified by at least one of the following:• Official Telegram verification (blue checkmark);• A direct reference to the channel from Musk’s other official accounts (e.g., X, Tesla, SpaceX);• Confirmation by reputable international media (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, AP, The Verge) stating that the channel belongs to Elon Musk. Additional Provisions:– Private chats, groups, or channels operated by companies (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX) do not qualify unless explicitly positioned as Elon Musk’s personal channel.– Fan-made or third-party channels with no verified connection to Musk are not eligible.– If the channel is created but later deleted or hidden before the resolution date, it will still count as valid if documented evidence exists (e.g., archived links, verified screenshots from official sources).

Will there be any territorial changes in Russia in 2025?

"his market will resolve to ""Yes"" if territorial changes occur in the Russian Federation by December 31, 2025, at 23:59 (UTC). Otherwise, this market will resolve to ""No.""

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation or a signed document confirming the annexation of new territories by the Russian Federation, or another reliable source of information."

Will the United States default before the end of 2025?

The U.S. government finances its debt obligations primarily through continued borrowing in the open market. However, this process is constrained by the statutory debt ceiling, which is set by Congress and subject to political negotiation and partisan interests. Should the government reach the debt limit and exhaust its available cash reserves, the Treasury would be unable to make scheduled payments on outstanding securities. Such a failure would constitute a sovereign default, with potentially severe consequences for global financial markets. This market will resolve to YES if, by 11:59 p.m. UTC on December 31, 2025, it becomes publicly known that the U.S. Department of the Treasury failed to make a full coupon or principal payment on any outstanding Treasury security by its contractual due date. Data sources: Official communications from the U.S. Department of the Treasury and verified reports from reputable international news agencies, including Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Associated Press.

Oleksandr Usyk

Who will win the heavyweight boxing match between Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois on July 19?

Daniel Dubois

The market will resolve as “Yes” for the corresponding outcome if the specified fighter is officially declared the winner based on the result of the bout scheduled to take place on July 19, 2025, regardless of location or outcome type (judges’ decision, technical knockout, knockout, corner retirement, disqualification, etc.).Resolution sources: – The official website of the event organizer or the promotional company (e.g., Top Rank, Matchroom, Queensberry Promotions, etc.); – Reputable sports media outlets: ESPN, BoxingScene, DAZN, The Ring Magazine, BoxRec; – In case of discrepancies, information from the fight organizers or the boxing commissions that issued the result shall take precedence.Additional provisions: – If the bout does not take place on July 19, 2025 but is officially rescheduled to a different date, the market will remain open until the fight concludes. – If the bout is canceled without being rescheduled, all outcomes will resolve as “No.” – If the bout concludes without an official winner being declared (e.g., technical draw, no contest, disqualification of both fighters, etc.), all outcomes will resolve as “No.”Important: This event is published strictly in a sports-related context. It does not touch upon political topics, express any opinions, or make judgments regarding any state, social, or other matters.

Mario Barrios

Who will win the boxing match between Mario Barrios and Manny Pacquiao?

Manny Pacquiao

On Saturday, July 19, 2025, a boxing event will take place in Las Vegas (USA), headlined by a bout between 30-year-old WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios and 46-year-old legendary boxer Manny Pacquiao. Who will win? Primary data source for resolution: information from the official website of the World Boxing Council https://wbcboxing.com/. If the winner of the fight is not determined by 23:59 UTC on July 20, 2025, the outcome for both participants will be set to “NO.”

Will Ali Khamenei lose power in Iran by the end of July?

Israel’s operation targeting Iran’s military nuclear capabilities has intensified domestic unrest within the Islamic Republic. The regime, perceived as weakened in the face of foreign aggression, now faces mounting internal opposition. Some observers suggest it could collapse at any moment. Meanwhile, Israel has not ruled out the possibility of eliminating Iran’s top leadership. The market will resolve to YES if Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, leaves office for any reason by 11:59 p.m. UTC on July 31, 2025. “Leaving office” includes resignation, removal, death, or any other circumstance in which Khamenei ceases to serve as Supreme Leader of Iran. Source of information: Reports from Iranian and international news agencies.

Will ETH reach $3000 before the end of August?

Ethereum is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization after Bitcoin and is widely used as a base asset for smart contracts and decentralized applications. The market will resolve to YES if, at any time between 00:01 UTC on 28 June 2025 and 23:59 UTC on 31 August 2025, the price of one Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds 3000 USD. Data source: the 1-minute (1 m) candlestick closing price for the ETH/USDT pair on Binance: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT.

Can Manchester United sell €300m worth of players before August 1, 2025?

Can Manchester United sell €300m+ worth of players before August 1, 2025?

One of the Grandes of the English Prime Minister of the League Manchester United is a strong crisis. 16 place in the league according to the results of the 2024/25 season, early sorties from the League and FA Cup. There are also positive aspects, of course, the final of the Europa League of this season, but in it the Mankunians lost 17 to the Tottenham nationwide team. After the final match, Garnacho and his brother attacked the head coach of the Ruben Amorim team, according to this story, one logical conclusion is the Garnacho transfer (assessed by a club of 70 million euros). Immediately there were rumors about the interest of al -Khilyal to Bruno Fernandesh - supposedly a contract for 3 years and 700 thousand euros per week. The incomprehensible prospects of the near future. In general, the &quot;red devils&quot; have a huge cleaning and restructuring. But whether they can benefit from players who did not justify themselves is a big question. Can Manchester United sell their current players for a total of €300m before August 1, 2025 (23.59 UTC)? Information will be taken from the official source transfermarkt.com The market will be resolved &quot;Yes&quot; if Manchester United sell players for more than €300m

Will Solana's TVL reach at least 50% of Ethereum's TVL in 2025?

In 2025, the competition between Ethereum and Solana in the DeFi sector intensifies. TVL (Total Value Locked) measures the total amount of assets locked in a platform’s smart contracts. Solana is rapidly expanding its DeFi volumes, while Ethereum continues to hold a substantial lead. The market resolves based on Solana’s share of total value locked (TVL) relative to Ethereum’s TVL, recorded on or before December 31, 2025 (23:59 UTC), according to DefiLlama (https://defillama.com/).  The ratio of these blockchains’ TVLs at any moment up to December 31, 2025 (23:59 UTC) applies. Data from other aggregators or platforms are not considered. Only the “Total Value Locked” (TVL) metric is taken into account.

More 10%

Will inflation in Russia exceed 10% by the end of 2025?

Below 10%

In December 2024, the official inflation rate in Russia was 9.5% (according to the Central Bank of Russia).
The market will resolve based on the inflation rate as of December 31, 2025, at 23:59 UTC:
If inflation is higher than 10%, the outcome will be "More 10%."
If inflation is lower than 10%, the outcome will be "Below 10%"
The source of resolution is the inflation figure (% year-over-year) from the "Key Interest Rate and Inflation" section on the official website of the Central Bank of Russia: https://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/infl/

Will the Digital Ruble Launch at Scale by the End of 2025?

The launch of the digital ruble in Russia was originally scheduled for July 1, 2025, but in February 2025, Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina announced a delay with no new date provided. The digital ruble has been in testing since 2022, with a pilot program involving banks, businesses, and individuals running since August 2023. The Central Bank has stated it will only move to full rollout after a thorough review of all technological and economic aspects.


Market Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Central Bank of Russia officially announces the launch of the digital ruble for public use on or before December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC.

If the launch is officially postponed beyond that date or no announcement is made by then, the market will resolve to “No.”

Resolution sources: official statements from the Central Bank of Russia, published on the regulator’s official website (www.cbr.ru) or reported by reputable media outlets.

Will Ronaldo have scored 1000 goals in just his base by the end of the 25?

"If Ronaldo officially scores 1,000 goals before December 31 at 23:59 (UTC), the market will settle as ‘Yes.’

In all other cases, the market will settle as ‘No.’

The resolution source for this market will be public information sources or an official press release."

Will a Solana (SOL) ETF Be Approved by December 31, 2025?

Will a Solana (SOL) ETF Be Approved in 2025?

Conditions and Event Execution Rules: The market resolves as “Yes” if, on or before December 31, 2025 (23:59 UTC), the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) formally approves the issuance of at least one Solana (SOL)-based ETF, including either spot or futures products. Otherwise, the market resolves as “No.” Resolution Source: Resolution derives solely from the SEC’s official publications (https://www.sec.gov) and corroborations by recognized financial media (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC). An ETF qualifies as approved only upon receipt of an official notification confirming the SEC’s approval of the respective product.

Paris Saint-Germain

Who will win the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025?

Bayern Munich

Manchester City

Real Madrid

The FIFA Club World Cup will be held in the United States from June 15 to July 13, 2025. It will feature 32 teams. The tournament will be held for the first time with such a large number of participants and a new formula. The list of participants and the match schedule can be found on the official FIFA website(https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/club-world-cup/usa-2025/scores-and-fixtures) Who will win the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025? Terms and conditions of the eventThe market will be resolved in favor of the club that is officially declared the winner of the final match of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup held on July 13, 2025. Source of authorizationThe official source of authorization is the FIFA website (https://www.fifa.com/) Additional provisions In the event of a match ending in extra time or on penalties, the winner will be the team that receives the official title from FIFA.In the event of the final being cancelled or postponed, the authorization will be postponed until the official final is held.In the event of the winner being disqualified after the match, the outcome will be based on the team that FIFA officially awards the title to.

Ulf Kristersson, Sweden

Which political leader will be the first to lose their position in 2025?

Emmanuel Macron, France

Pedro Sánchez, Spain

Donald Trump, USA

Xi Jinping, China

Recep Erdogan, Turkey

Keir Starmer, United Kingdom

Friedrich Merz, Germany

Leo XIV, Holy See

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine

All listed leaders - presidents, prime ministers, and the Pope - can lose their position in 2025 only through voluntary resignation, impeachment, overthrow, a vote of no confidence, or natural causes (such as death, severe injury, or serious illness), as no scheduled elections for top leadership roles are expected in their respective countries during the year. “Loss of position” is defined as any change in a leader’s status, including a shift to acting capacity following the resignation of a government. Temporary, prearranged transfers of authority - such as those occurring during vacations, medical procedures, or similar circumstances - do not constitute a “loss of position.” The market will resolve positively for only one leader: the first to leave office in 2025. All others will be recorded as NO. Data source: official announcements from the governments of the respective countries. Additional sources: reports from major news agencies and global media outlets. If none of the listed leaders leave office by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, the market will resolve as NO for all outcomes.

Below $60

What price will Brent crude hit by the end of August?

Above $90

Above $110

Above $130

Brent crude oil surged following Israel’s strikes on Iran in mid-June. JP Morgan suggests prices could potentially spike to $120–130 per barrel in worst-case scenarios for the Middle East. However, their baseline forecast for 2025 remains at $60 per barrel. Markets will resolve as YES if Brent crude trades above $90, $110, or $130, or falls below $60 per barrel. Data source: www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

Will Walmart or Amazon launch their own stablecoin by the end of July?

Walmart and Amazon are weighing plans to launch proprietary stablecoins, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. As of now, neither company has confirmed these discussions. The market will resolve to YES if either firm officially announces the creation of a stablecoin by 11:59 p.m. UTC on July 31, 2025. Data sources: official press releases published on company websites and reports from major newswires or reputable business outlets.

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